USTC J9 Peak Season Call (Aug 13)

August 13, 2020

Much of today’s Peak Season call again centered around projections of workload into the fall.  Refusals are extremely low; blackouts are extremely low; suspensions are low; offer handling time is low.  The projected increased volume into the Fall is yet to materialize in a meaningful way that TSPs can see.

 

The Services all say their belief is that the fall shipment volume will exceed the three year average; but today they offered more caution that it is difficult to project how much more that volume will be, because there are so many factors involved.  Those factors are the same as what I’ve highlighted in these reports for weeks.  The 24-week shipment outlook slide today shows that after week 36 where shipments are projected above the 3-year average, the shipment forecast from weeks 37-45 right now are at or near the 3-year average.  This outlook slide does not point to planned shipments above the normal well into the Fall.

 

Additionally, the short fuse percentages are staying at about 25% of the total shipments week to week; but for international, it climbed to 34% last week.  Some TSPs have asked why they aren’t seeing the shipment volume on the international side they would expect…and at least part of that answer is because so much is moving via short fuse. 

 

We asked on the call today that since so many factors point to available capacity, whether it was time for J9 to shrink short fuse back to 5 days.  J9 stated they would talk to the Services later today on that topic; but when asked previously, the Services believe there are too many shipments in short fuse timing out due to no capacity, and therefore did not want to shorten the short fuse window when discussed last week.

 

Some general stats from the slides:

  • Week 32 Counseling below 100% of 3-year average for first time in quite a while.
  • Awarded shipments at about the 3-year average for week 32 (101%). 
  • Pickups have been near normal peak season levels since week 26.
  • Code 2 up to 14% for week 32.
  • 64% of suspensions during the peak season were COVID policy related.

 

J9 reiterated that they have not received the number of monthly inconvenience claim reports that TSPs are supposed to submit per the new requirement in the TOS.  They understand there is a lag in reporting, but expect higher numbers; and aren’t sure why TSPs are not submitting as required.