USTC J9 Stop Movement/COVID-19 Call (1 May)
May 04, 2020
J9 held their latest Stop Movement call with industry and the Services on Friday. See the slides.
Rick Marsh started the call announcing that the GHC had been awarded; stating that USTC was proud of that milestone. He then turned his attention to the slide labeled “For Discussion Purposes Only”. USTC and the Services continue to work projecting requirements following the eventual end of the Stop Movement Order, trying to give industry a sense of how many shipments to expect; while trying to get a sense from industry what capacity can be handled on a weekly basis; during which weeks; and for how long. The slide is a work in progress, with a number of caveats. Actual shipments and shipment distribution will not look like currently depicted on the slide. But the slide represents a shipment total equal as of this week, to about 90% of what 2019’s shipment total equaled. Given unconstrained capacity, and an end to the Stop Movement Order as currently projected, the slide represents what the rest of 2020 might look like with no constraints. But clearly there will be constraints.
As previously reported, J9 believes in previous years DoD customers experienced significantly degraded quality moves when the weekly shipment total goes above 9,000. If that assumption holds true this summer…and assuming industry is comfortable enough to build their capacity and labor force to meet the end of the stop movement period at full strength, then all the shipments above the yellow line on the chart need to slip to the right. In that scenario, the main question for industry becomes two-fold…can you successfully exceed the typical 9,000 shipment per week total without degrading the customer experience…if so, when can DoD expect that capacity and how high? And two, if 9,000 is the right number, can DoD plan to maintain that level of capacity this year into December? What are the conditions industry needs, to successfully sustain a 9,000 shipment capacity into December?
Some industry POCs relayed that meeting and/or exceeding the 9,000 shipment capacity is somewhat dependent on the National account and COD markets…and there is very little accurate projections right now in those markets. But it was suggested that if DoD starts booking their shipments now, instead of waiting, agents can begin to schedule their capacity and better prepare for what is to come. If not, then agents will look for work, and may use some of that capacity on other markets. The risk to this methodology is if the Stop Movement is extended beyond 30 June, then PPSOs will have to rebook shipments, creating additional workload/burdens. But if the DoD’s goal is more capacity, they need to start booking now for the rest of the summer/year.
Marsh stated he’s heard suggestions that some are pushing their members to use PPM shipments this summer instead of DP3. He said that is not his recommendation, nor would it ever be.
Marsh is relaying to the OSD Personnel community that 9,000 shipments per week is the right number; and that shifting shipments to the right to get down to that level, is the preferred course of action.
The Services are working various prioritization schemes for shipments, with some looking at the potential of pushing some movement to later in the summer/year. The Air Force agrees and has informed their Air Staff Personnel leaders they need to shift Report-No-Later-Than-Dates (RNLTDs) to the right as opposed to planning to move most of their normal peak season capacity this summer. The Army is trying to define by major installation, when major movements might happen, and marry that with local agent capacity to see how many shipments are feasible. The Navy is in early stages, but planning to give the member a window of time to make their move. And the Marines are still in early stages of planning.
Danny Martinez noted that the Change 4 advisory and tender/tariff are posted. The Air Freight advisory is posted. And some 10% adjustment scenarios are posted on move.mil.
The peak season message, likely due out Monday, will contain guidance for transit time increases.
And questions on the implementation of advisory 0081 (TSP Certification of Health Protection Protocols), are being consolidated for FAQs that should be posted “soon”. The intent of “cleaning surfaces” is not a full house cleaning, or cleaning of every possible thing a mover might touch. The intent is a wipe down of high-touch surfaces such as doorknobs, handrails, light switches, counter tops, etc, where touched by the movers, and if required by the customer. We asked and are hoping an updated certification letter will include similar parameters of what “cleaning” is required; or that it is at least spelled out in the FAQs from J9.
The Navy asked whether the requirements set forth in advisory 0081 applied to pre-move survey visits by industry, or third-party services that enter the member’s home. The answer from Rick Marsh is, “yes”. The advisory applies, and the certification needs to be completed and presented to the customer during any interaction between industry and the member; not just at pack/pick up and delivery.
The Air Force asked whether the guidance on the 10% adjustment might also apply to DPM shipments that have been modified in some way due to the Stop Movement Order. J9 stated it is something they are looking into. No further details were discussed.
J9 was asked whether the required statements in Block 13, such as “Authorized 0058 Move” applies to all Services or are some exempt? A number of people have complained that the Navy was not putting these statements on their shipment paperwork. It was confirmed it is required for all Services. Jay Yerkey from Navy agreed. The Air Force PPA stated if Air Force JPPSOs are not doing this, let him know.
J9 stated these twice-per-week calls might be cut back to once per week.